Author: Frances Cairncross
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
Copyright 1997, 2001
317 pages, Paperback, ISBN 1-57851-438-X
Price: US$16.95

Deny it all you want, but people increasingly work from home these days, and yes they do go to work to shop. The office has become 'a place for the social aspects of work such as networking, brainstorming, lunching and gossiping.' Coffee shops, cars, hotel rooms and departure lounges are increasingly used to 'work on the move….new homes will routinely have small offices.' We all appreciate that the way we work today is different from the way we worked yesterday. The way we play today is different from the way we played yesterday. Cairncross describes how the introduction of the Internet and wireless communications are changing the way we communicate and live our lives. Distance is becoming less of a factor in determining our behavior.

Cairncross writes in an easy to read style. Each chapter is packed full of interesting well researched information with an excellent bibliography. There are 11 chapters covering topics including the Internet, E-commerce, the changing roles of government, policing the electronic world, loss of privacy, and issues of security. There are a few grammatical ('editing') errors in the book. Being Australian, one of the main ones that stuck in my mind was the reference to 'Anslett' instead of 'Ansett' on page 209. Another is the mislabeling of the vertical axis defining the number of patents granted on page 244 (should be x1000).

Cairncross begins with a 'Trendspotter's Guide to New Communications.' Here she discusses 25 developments related to how the death of distance may change the future. A brief sample of what I found interesting is discussed below:

"A gap has opened between the United States and Europe. Internet use is twice as high, per head of population in America, as in Europe; while the penetration of the mobile telephone is 50% higher in Europe than in the United States." Cairncross describes the different billing methods, which offer an explanation of the trends described. Un-metered local calls in the United States have helped the Internet flourish more than in Europe where local calls are timed. The calling-party-pays system of charging phones in Europe has boosted their use – while in America recipients frequently pay for calls. As a result, mobile phone use in America is not as high as in Europe per head of population. Communication companies in the United States are advertising new ideas such as 'anytime anywhere minutes' or 'unlimited night minutes' to boost their market share.

On page 33 of the book, an interesting but concerning discussion on computer power highlights security problems that could result from malicious use of technology. "In addition, computer power is now embedded in all sorts of products – sometimes with unexpected results. Sony's PlayStation2, coupled with a video camera, could make an ideal missile guidance system. Japan's government slapped export controls on the device. The episode provided a vivid instance of the computing power installed in household gadgets: the PlayStation2's central processor has twice the power of Intel's most advanced Pentium Chip."

The manner in which we communicate is changing. The volume with which we communicate is increasing. The cost of communication is decreasing. Cairncross describes this: "news travels almost instantaneously from its source to its recipients, globally, as it occurs in real time." Anyone can attest to this by watching the nightly news. However, Cairncross states: "the effort has transferred from the people delivering the information to the people receiving the information." As any email user would agree – we filter the information that comes to us – and try to assimilate only that which we feel relevant.

Quite entertaining is the author's description of the introduction of the telephone as: "one human being, speaking to another, unseen and far away, carrying ideas and emotions across distance." The telephone radically overcame the distance and time associated with communication. We can speculate on the impact the next wave of communication will have on human behavior – will we beam ourselves into someone's sub-conscious and have virtual conversations? Will we have to pay for this and if so how? "A peek at the communications of the future: a world in which transmitting information costs almost nothing, in which distance is irrelevant, and in which any amount of content is instantly accessible." I'm not sure I totally agree with the author's measurement of cost. Transmitting information requires energy – electricity at this point. Transferring information in digital voice or data form requires the energy used to design and manufacture the transmission systems – (see my previous book review in Feb/Mar issue of PESA News) in addition to the energy required for the transmission. I fail to see how this will cost almost nothing. As distance erodes, communication will become available to more users, placing an extra burden on the system to transmit more information – this, I believe, will always incur a cost.

The discussion of the Internet and its impact on communication is quite fascinating. Ordering anything other than digital media on-line incurs a wait time, and the need to be present when the delivery arrives. "When shoppers go to stores to buy, they do their own fulfillment: they select the goods from the shelves and they carry them home. When they buy on-line, the task needs to be done by somebody who is paid to undertake it. In this case the economics of order fulfillment are exactly the opposite of the economics of on-line ordering. In one, something the customer once did for free has to be paid for; in the other something once paid for is now done free by the customer. Fulfillment matters to customers more than price." Websites have tended to outsource fulfillment. However, this is changing as on-line retailers are now creating their own distribution systems. By doing this they can compete on fulfillment speed – by creating closer links between their inventories and delivery. So the question then becomes, "Are people willing to pay for delivery – to satisfy their need for instant fulfillment?" Cairncross eloquently describes this as the reason why shopping for physical goods on-line is likely to grow more slowly than other kinds of on-line retailing.

Another consequence of the lessening of distance is a reduction of the difference in earning capacity of different geographical regions. There is no reason why someone with a laptop, modem connection and a hot cup of coffee cannot be just as productive trading stocks, picking velocities or selling goods on-line from an airport lounge, a beachside shack or from a downtown office. As a result, we will see a narrowing of the gap between what people earn in different parts of the world for similar work. Say goodbye to all those expatriate benefits. "Where people with scarce skills can live in one country and work in another, they can command an inter-national rate. For such people, the Internet offers a global job-offers page."

One very enlightening point made in Chapter 8 related to top performers in different technological fields. Traditionally, performers in music, television and sports make huge sums of money due to their 'superstar' status. Cairncross believes this will spread to other jobs, like lawyers, bankers and doctors. They will be paid according to their 'performance' relative to others in the same field. The best will earn fortunes. I just naturally read the term geophysicist into this. Would someone pay me $3 million dollars to pick velocities on their permit areas? Imagine the reviews: we have to drill this well, it's a famous well, the seismic velocities were picked by none other than Mr. X.

Consider email as one example of the death of distance. A reply to a letter used to take days at best. Email has produced a linguistic innovation through being more or less instantaneous: Cairncross expresses the need to avoid writing in anger – however, the ease of use of email makes this difficult. As communication and its format change, distance will be removed as an obstacle. The language we use and the way we communicate will change accordingly. This will create a new culture and new 'global tongue'.

In summary, this is a thoroughly entertaining book which raises some quite important thought provoking issues. Highly recommended to anyone with a phone, a computer and an email account.