In its report ‘Energy Update 2005’, The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) said Australia could capitalise on booming demand for LNG and become the biggest supplier in the Asia-Pacific in coming years. The bureau reported that current and expected projects could take Australian LNG production from the current 11.7 MMt/a, mostly coming from the North West Shelf, to almost 50 MMt/a.

ABARE noted that annual demand in the Asia-Pacific region was likely to grow from 88MMt/a in 2004 to 124.4 MMt/a by the end of the decade and rise further to 156.6 MMt/a by 2015. According to the report, China is predicted to be the major source of growth, requiring almost 19 MMt/a of LNG by 2015, while another 14 MMt/a will be required by California.

Once the Bayu-Undan development is completed early next year another 3.5 MMt/a is expected to come on stream, complementing the North West Shelf, whereas other projects include a fifth supply train to the North West Shelf (4.2 MMt), Gorgon (10MMt), the Pilbara (6 MMt) and the Browse Basin (7MMt).

Despite a number of new projects in the region that could potentially boost production, including in Russia, Oman, Indonesia, Iran and Peru, the report stated that Australia was in a strong position to get a large stake of the expected growth in LNG demand over the next decade: “Australia will face strong competition to secure markets in this timeframe. However, with LNG buyers continuing to take flexibility, diversity, market stability and reliability, as well as price, into account in procurement decisions, the outlook for the Australian LNG industry remains strong.”