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Supply
Of Professional Staff: Is There A Problem?
There
has been considerable discussion recently about the impact of external
factors on the numbers of students choosing to study at Australian universities
for careers in the minerals industry.
In
2000, the Minerals Tertiary Education Council (MTEC) commenced collecting
enrolment data from all Australian universities in the core technical
disciplines of earth science, mining engineering and, in the broadest
sense, "metallurgy".
The
purpose of this initiative is to understand the supply side of the professional
staff equation; to guide MTEC in developing appropriate educational programs
and to assist companies with their strategic personnel planning.
The
data was requested from the relevant departments/schools of all universities
in April each year (after the HECS reports are completed) and are supplied
on a voluntary basis.
At
the undergraduate level, data are collected on the total number of students
taking a core discipline subject that is a pre-requisite for enrolment
in the subsequent year of the designated degree programme.
At
the postgraduate level, departments are asked to provide the actual and
estimated numbers of MSc and PhD completions for the past year and for
future years.
Most,
but not all, universities responded, and not all universities record student
enrolment data in the same way. The compiled data are therefore incomplete,
but are sufficiently accurate, we believe, to define trends that are useful
for further discussion.
Collated
data are presented for each of the core disciplines, for each of which
there are three graphs:
The first shows undergraduate student enrolments by year of study; the
second, Masters (coursework and research) completions and estimates, and
the third, PhD completions and estimates.
Earth
Sciences
The very large number of students enrolled in first year is a characteristic
of the discipline, because geology is almost always offered as a general
science subject in first year. There is a consistent decline to stability
in Years 2 and 3, followed by a further halving of the population electing
to do Honours. Figure 1.
Of
note, there is little change in the total enrolments, especially in Years
2 and 3 over the past three years. The only major exception is that the
Honours graduating cohort in 2002 is about 1/3 lower than in the previous
two years.
The
opportunity for the minerals industry and for university departments is
to influence the more than 1000 students doing first year geology at Australian
universities to consider building a career in the earth sciences.
The
number of completions of Masters degrees, either by coursework or research
(Figure 2), has been fairly constant in 2000 and 2001, but shows a significant
estimated decline from 2003 to 2004.
The
reason for this is not certain, but is believed to be due to reduced industry
support for technical professional development and industry rationalisation
resulting in a smaller number of geologists employed.
There
is a similar level of decline in the estimated number of PhD completions
(Figure 3) from 2002 to 2005, from an actual peak of more than 120 in
2001.
This
may be of concern as it is from this body of highly trained researchers
that future academics and career research scientists, so important to
driving innovation in Australia's minerals industry, are drawn.
An
Honours degree in the earth sciences is the defacto qualification for
anyone seeking to work in mineral exploration or geological research.
Does the 30% decline in the number of Honours students over the past three
years ring warning bells about the future supply of professional staff
in these areas?
Mining
Engineering
For each of the past three years Australian universities have produced
about 170 mining engineering graduates. In 2000, more than 200 graduated
representing the 'bulge' of students who enrolled in mining engineering
following the industry's heady year of 1996.
As
the data show, long-term trends are difficult to predict. Many universities
now offer common first and sometimes second year engineering programmes
further complicating interpretation of enrolment trends.
The
1st Year numbers in Figure 4 include enrolments at those universities
offering four-year specialised mining engineering degree programmes. They
also include departmental estimates of the numbers of 1st Year students
likely to choose mining engineering in later years at those universities
that offer a general first year.
In
fact, and inexplicably, student enrolments actually go up in some subsequent
years. There are more 4th Year mining engineering students in 2002 than
there were 2nd Year students in 2000?
On
face value though, the lower numbers of students in 1st year mining engineering
in 2002 suggests there will be significantly less than 170 mining engineers
graduating in 2006.
There
is actual and anticipated growth in the area of Masters completions in
mining engineering (Figure 5). This is encouraging because it reflects
a demand for higher skill levels that presently are being provided through
coursework and shortcourse programmes.
Universities
should seek to grow this market by providing flexible learning programs
that will allow other engineers to retrain as mining engineers to meet
the probable personnel shortage from 2006.
Of
most concern is the low number of PhD completions in mining engineering
(Figure 6). The total numbers are not only low but in fact are predicted
to decline further. Many of the students are from overseas and return
home after their higher degree is completed. Therefore, there is not enough
high-level research training of individuals aiding the Australian minerals
industry in this discipline.
There
are eight universities in Australia that produce graduates with degrees
and/or training in mining engineering and/or geological engineering. How
sustainable is this when the graduating student cohort in 2006 could be
as low as 100?
Metallurgy
The situation with regard to undergraduate teaching in metallurgy is quite
complex; not only are there some specialised metallurgy schools, but there
are also schools of materials engineering and chemical engineering, both
of which provide elective courses in extractive metallurgy, particularly
in Years 3 and 4 of their degree programmes.
In
those universities that offer common 1st and/or 2nd Year engineering programmes,
it is also difficult to identify the number of students likely to continue
with a metallurgical major in their undergraduate degree.
In
Figure 7, the most consistent data are those shown for the fourth year
students when all options and choices have been expended.
Over
the last three years Australian universities have produced about 100 graduates
per year with skills and education that would allow them to practice as
professional "metallurgists".
Unfortunately,
enrolment data for Years 1 – 3 provide no clear indication of future
trends that might suggest, if and how, the 100 per year number is likely
to change.
Figures
8 and 9 paint a much more alarming situation for the future of metallurgy
research.
Both
Masters and PhD completion data show significant actual and anticipated
decline from the highs recorded in 2000.
There
appears to be a very limited market for either coursework or research
Masters programmes. Practising professionals do not appear to be using
the Masters programs to upgrade skills.
PhD
completions have declined from a peak of nearly 80 in 2000 to less than
20 predicted for each of 2003 and 2004.
Where is Australia going to source its future metallurgical researchers
and academics?
How is innovation in the minerals industry, which traditionally has been
driven largely by Australia, going to be met if there are not sufficient
numbers of up and coming research scientists?
How
are the specialist research centres in extractive metallurgy going to
operate if they can't source qualified staff?
Conclusions
Now that the Minerals Tertiary Education Council has some hard data on
trends in university enrolments, i.e. the supply of professionals for
the minerals industry, the programmes it supports and encourages can be
better tuned to provide positive outcomes for the minerals industry.
However,
of potentially greater concern to the minerals industry as well as most
other technology-based industries, is the significant decline in the quality
of science education and learning within the secondary school systems
in Australia. Fewer and fewer school leavers are not sufficiently qualified
to study science and engineering at university. Many of those who are,
choose not to do so.
Over
the next few years it is anticipated that university enrolments of school
leavers will show a consistent decline similar to what is becoming evident
in the data presented above.
The problem for all Science Engineering & Technology (SET) industries
is between five and 10 years out when the current cohort of secondary
school students seek to join the workforce as professional engineers and
scientists. It is likely there will not be enough to satisfy demand.
One
of MTEC's next tasks is to look carefully at the demand side of the equation
by contacting minerals companies and building a picture of employment
patterns in the earth science, mining engineering and metal-lurgical professions.
In
the mean time, MTEC is carrying out a strategic review of its programs.
Professor Jim Galvin, recently Head of the School of Mining Engineering
at the University of NSW, will be assisting with the review that will
be presented to the Executive Committee of the Minerals Council of Australia
in June 2003.
It
is anticipated that the findings of this review will substantially influence
the manner in which the Australian minerals industry continues to support
learning programs for its current and future professional staff.
Fiona
Bartier - Research Officer, MTEC
Kevin Tuckwell - Executive Director, MTEC
Alison Way - Research
Article
reproduced courtesy of AusIMM Bulletin.
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